The Value of Real-World Businesses in an Unreal World

Bernice Brooks, Associate in
1 October 2026

7-minute read

Almost 250 years later, the idea remains simple. At the end of every product we build and every business we finance, there is a consumer.

What interests us as investors is how those consumers change: what they expect, where they spend and which new businesses are best placed to benefit.

We are all consumers

The clothes we wear, the coffee we drink, the food we eat and the medicine we take all began with somebody recognising a need, building something to meet it and finding the capital to bring it to market.

The underlying need may remain remarkably consistent. What changes is what consumers expect from the businesses serving it. That ability to change brands, products and habits is one of the reasons we find consumer investing interesting.

The market is already there

Household spending represents around 59% of UK GDP. That is nearly £1.8 trillion a year moving through the hands of consumers making everyday decisions. The opportunity is not simply the size of that market. It is understanding where the money is moving.

Where is spending shifting from an old habit to a new one? Where have expectations moved faster than the companies serving them? And can we identify that movement early?

Changing consumer behaviour does not always mean creating entirely new demand. Often the demand already exists. What changes is where consumers choose to spend against it, allowing new businesses to take share from older solutions.

From trend to adoption

Spotting a change in consumer expectations is only the beginning. The more important question is whether consumers actually adopt the new behaviour.

With Fussy, customers were not simply trying the product once. They were subscribing and returning. That repeat behaviour provided evidence that the product was becoming part of a customer's routine rather than remaining a novelty purchase.

Founder insight, customer behaviour and economics

Our investment in Lune & Wild provides another example.

Founders Nadia Simonds and Lara Rodgers had experienced the problem personally. As mothers, they struggled to find nutritious and convenient food they genuinely wanted to give their children. They were the consumer, and they could see a gap between what parents increasingly expected and what the category was providing.

But founder intuition on its own is not enough to build an investment case. We want to understand whether the insight appears in the behaviour of customers and whether the underlying economics can support a substantial business.

That analysis can include repeat purchase rates, lifetime value, customer acquisition costs, cohort performance and overall growth. Together, those measures help us assess whether the behaviour we see is repeatable, sustainable and capable of creating long-term value.

Why the founder matters

There is still one question the customer data cannot answer entirely: why this founder?

Sometimes you get an early glimpse. My first meeting with Evaro founder Thuria Wenbar happened on Halloween in 2024. She joined our Zoom call in full costume, complete with a green-painted face.

We certainly did not invest because of the Halloween costume. But during that first conversation something became apparent. Here was a founder with a deep understanding of the problem she wanted to solve, an ambitious vision for what the company could become and a very clear commitment to her team and mission.

That initial impression was only the start. Then came the work: the numbers, references, unit economics and market analysis.

Different categories, the same question

Across the Guinness Ventures portfolio, consumer businesses operate in very different categories. These include essentials, beverages and wellness, personal care, women's health, sports technology, food and drink, consumer technology, longevity, baby and children's products and health technology.

On the surface, businesses such as Fussy, MORI, MOTH Drinks, Shot Scope and GlycanAge are very different.

Underneath them sits the same question: where is consumer behaviour changing, and which founders are best placed to build into that change?

Our job is to understand where that spending is moving, find the founders who see the change early and back the businesses capable of turning that change into something enduring.

That is the opportunity we see in real-world consumer businesses.

Related resources

Explore some of the companies and investment themes discussed at the 2026 Guinness Ventures Investor Conference.

Frequently asked questions

Some of the key questions behind our approach to consumer investment.